Ripple map

Systems thinking: understanding the ripple effect

How a ripple map works: the decision is the pebble. First-order ripples are what changes directly. Second-order ripples are "and then what?". The loop is any ripple that circles back and strengthens or weakens the original decision.

The pebbleThe decision your experiment points to
First-order ripplesWhat changes directly
Second-order ripplesAnd then what?
The loopA ripple that circles back to the decision
  • Work through the six steps in order. Start with where you're heading, then drop the pebble.
  • Short answers are fine. One line per box is enough.
  • Your answers save in this browser only. Nobody else can see them.
  1. 1

    What is your next capital event?

    Pick the one you're working towards now.

  2. 2

    What are the top 2 to 3 milestones that unlock your next capital event?

    For example: £50k MRR, FCA authorisation, a signed bank partner.

    a
    b
    c
  3. 3

    How does your experiment help you achieve your milestones?

    Which milestone does it move, and how?

  4. 4

    Experiment result: drop the pebble

    Write one sentence. Staying the course counts as a decision.

    "Because my experiment proved / disproved / was inconclusive on X, I'm going to Y."
  5. 5

    First ripples

    Across these six areas, ask "what changes directly?" Keep the three most significant.

    CustomersRegulationCapital ProductNew marketsTalent
    1
    2
    3
  6. 6

    Second ripples

    For each of the three, ask "and then what?" Mark each one as an accelerant (+) or a risk (−) to your milestones.

    From ripple 1
    From ripple 2
    From ripple 3
Part of the GuessWorks resource pack · Fintech Forward programme